It was quite encouraging to see a reasonably big turnout to MDC Australia 2004. This is the second year that the event has been run, but the first time I've attended. The MSDN, Telstra, Optus, Carrier Devices, and O2 sponsored one day event, which was free to all who registered, offered quite a reasonable level of information, primarily based around the .NET CF platform. Windows Mobile seemed to dominate the day, although it was intended that two tracks should be offered - one for Tablet PC developers, and one for Windows Mobile developers. There was very little Tablet PC to be seen though, and all devices given away on the day were Windows Mobile based. I'd say Tablet PC still has a long way to go in Australia.
At a rough guess, I'd say that between 500 and 1000 developers attended the day, with a majority of those interested in the Windows Mobile track. I did overhear one comment during a break that made me smile, which was someone sporting a Tablet PC commenting "Geez, does everyone have one of those phone things?".. my thought, in response, was "Not yet - but we're working on it!"
The Microsoft representatives from Redmond, in addition to the local Australian contingent, were enthusiastic and well prepared. A few glitches during presentations made for some amusement, but all in all they did a great job in passing on their message. I won't go into detail about all the presentations - for starters, I didn't take notes - but suffice to say that I was inspired by many of their ideas and concepts, and sufficiently so to consider seriously starting some Windows Mobile development soon.
What I do want to talk about is an update on Windows Mobile in the region. I went to MDC with a list of questions in my head that I hoped to have answered, and Calum from Microsoft was only too happy to suggest that I might well find the majority of my answers. I must say that he was indeed correct, and there's a lot which came out of the day which I found interesting and relevant. I've taken some time to write down my thoughts on the future of Windows Mobile in Australia - and they are very much my own thoughts, drawn primarily from information discussed on the day, but nonetheless not necessarily official information from Microsoft. Whether you agree or disagree - feel free to make your thoughts known in the related discussion thread (which you'll see a link to at the very bottom).
The rise and rise of Windows Mobile in Australia
Microsoft see a fast-growing market in the Asia-Pacific region for Windows Mobile based-devices, and especially the Pocket PC Phone and Smartphone. This has largely coincided with the release of the MPx200 to the region, and it's clear that Motorola is seen as a driving force for innovation in this field. Those distributors who rebrand HTC built devices - such as O2, Carrier Devices, and Hewlett Packard - have enjoyed a largely unchallenged market in the region, with the exception of some more localised efforts such as Mitac - who have yet to make an appearance in Australia. That's all about to change.
We will see more hardware releases following quickly upon international releases, and there's a chance we might even be in line for a local "world first" release or two as the Australian adoption of Windows Mobile based device grows to a point where it may be considered a good test market for devices prior to release in other countries.
Although Australia is very much still at a niche level - with the majority of purchases coming from a limited subset of businesses (with many rejecting the platform due to security concerns as well as cost of rollout), the uptake of these devices is fast approaching a stage where the platform will have the opportunity to enter the mainstream.
The challenge here is getting the devices into people's pockets. Introduction of devices such as the Windows Mobile based Portable Media Centers may assist in this regard, but it won't provide a total solution. There are plenty who are likely to continue to prefer their Apple iPod over a device which, frankly, is huge - admittedly quite a bit more functional, but nonetheless huge.
Key to this is pricing. Carrier-based subsidies are a possible solution, although you'll still pay the full cost in time. Currently Telstra sell both the i-mate Pocket PC Phone and i-mate Smartphone2, and are enjoying some success (in particular with the Smartphone2, where the device is priced at a sufficiently low level to permit Telstra to offer it via a ~AUD$60 per month plan over 24 months). But more needs to happen in this regard.
Working with mobile carriers
Microsoft have succeeded in obtaining deals with the "big three" mobile carriers in Australia - Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone. Where this will go is yet to be seen - with only Telstra offering highly visible deals based around these devices, including their Exchange MobileMail solution for businesses. Optus and Vodafone are somewhat slow to make their moves in this regard, with Optus having signed for the business-targeted Motorola MPx200 and (much to my surprise) the O2 XDA II. As yet, I've only seen the MPx200 offered by Optus, but certainly reports have been trickling in of the XDA II being offered from selected stores.
Vodafone are yet to make a highly visible move. Unlike New Zealand, where Vodafone have put quite considerable marketing efforts behind the Carrier Devices branded i-mate Pocket PC Phone and i-mate Smartphone2, Vodafone Australia have been slow to act. They support the devices on their network now - which is a major step - but I've yet to see a Windows Mobile based device sold from a Vodafone store.
Working with the community
It seems certain that Microsoft Australia - having just recently launched their own local Windows Mobile site - will focus much effort on their relationship with carriers, much to the consumers' benefit. As more devices hit these shores, we will see individual carriers add more devices to their range, and perhaps even see those magic price drops we all long for. Microsoft is just now beginning to take Australia very seriously with the converged device platform, and we're going to be in for a wild ride. I'd be inclined to pinpoint the local release of the Motorola MPx and MPx100 as a starting point for some very exciting developments in this area.
One issue that will have to be addressed is the public perception that these devices have a sharp learning curve - especially the Smartphone platform. I would suggest that, while there are things which Microsoft could do to address this, one major factor in this is carrier support. Presently it's somewhat hit and miss as to whether or not you will receive adequate technical support from your mobile provider, and this is very likely to be an area in which Microsoft will be making quite some investment. After all, it's in their best interest to ensure that the carrier has good in-house knowledge on the devices, and that the public can access this knowledge. An unhappy Windows Mobile user is not a pretty picture by any means.
It's clear that Microsoft will also spend time working with, and building up, the local community - sites such as Jenneth.info, MTekk, and Wormhole Creations, as well as the Sydney and Melbourne user groups - in order to "spread the love", for want of a better word. It's great to have local MVP representation, such as that received by both Jenneth and our trans-Tasman friend Mauricio at Geekzone, and this is another clear indicator that the local market is catching Microsoft's attention.
I think that going forward, Microsoft will address the local community in a number of ways. Firstly, nominating further local people for MVP status, in order to recognise the local expertise and support provided to end users and businesses alike. Secondly, promoting local sites and user groups through the local Windows Mobile site and future Windows Mobile events. Thirdly, more collaboration with local user groups and websites to provide timely information and advance notice of product releases. And finally, provision of direct contacts within Microsoft for these various groups to discuss issues and possible resolutions.
Growth of the community is clearly a key target for Microsoft - if nothing else, the local MDC event is a great advertisement of the importance of local communities and developers, and it certainly did provide a great opportunity to network with others in the field. We can always hope that more of these events will happen, more frequently - or at least that the events will be lengthened to provide as much information to be imparted as possible.
Involving the partner channels
An extension from Microsoft recognising the importance of the community should ideally be the integration of Windows Mobile into existing partner channels. The Microsoft partner program has a great potential to assist in growing the Windows Mobile market, with many who currently participating in the program being perfectly placed to sell solutions built around Windows Mobile.
One consideration with this, though, is that there are firms - such as our friends over at Press Digital / C1 Consulting - who specialise in Windows Mobile based solutions. Would Windows Mobile as part of the partner channels hurt these firms? Possibly, yes - although if Microsoft were to encourage partners seeking to implement Windows Mobile solutions for customers to draw upon the expertise already offered by these firms, it could also be a massive growth opportunity.
A major reason for encouraging integration into partner channels is the potential to increase developer support, and to grow the Windows Mobile developer community. Having an additional marketing opportunity could encourage many development firms to bring new and innovative ideas to the area, and perhaps even generate those killer applications that can really make a platform.
Windows Mobile 2003, Second Edition
The recent announcement of Windows Mobile 2003 Second Edition will help in this regard. In particular, the capability for screen rotation - especially when partnered with exciting devices like the Motorola MPx - may help to create a focus for the imagination of prospective developers. There are, I'm sure, many applications which could yet be written to make full, and exciting, use of the features included in this OS update.
Many would regard as Second Edition as a "Service Pack 2" rather than a full OS update, but this is more or less a moot point. The update illustrates the rapidly increasing maturity of the platform - which, let's face it, has come a long way from the Palm PC days where I first became familiar with the platform. From this point onwards, I feel we can expect to see a massive increase in the number of professionally written applications to address particular markets, and especially based around the converged Pocket PC Phone and Smartphone devices.
We will see further innovation from manufacturers arising from this update, and although the Motorola MPx will be a tough act to follow, the ability to use many and varied screen sizes will make it possible for manufacturers to build a Pocket PC - or Smartphone - to build devices that meet all manner of needs. I'm particularly hopeful that the Smartphone platform will shortly be able to provide phones as small as some offered by the competition - which again will encourage adoption by a more mainstream market. It's a pipe-dream as yet, but the Motorola MPx100 is not the biggest phone around by any means.
Windows Mobile Future
Going forward, we will see all manner of new and exciting features in Windows Mobile. I didn't worry about writing down any of the "future features" feted at MDC - things such as Direct 3D Mobile and Windows Error Reporting were featured, but not really elaborated on to any great extent, and it was by no means a full or finalized list. It's certain that the OS will be based on the recently announced Windows CE 5.0, and that it will build upon - rather than replace - existing functionality.
Hardware-wise, we will see a major change in the Pocket PC - with flash-based file systems similar to that offered in the Smartphone form factor, permitting a Pocket PC to be switched off altogether - not to mention removing the "battery panic" that all Pocket PC owners face, which is that once your battery runs out, your data is gone. If that's not the single biggest "killer feature" at this stage, I'll be very surprised.
End-user support is a prickly issue - with Microsoft having left support hitherto to the manufacturers and distributors of the phones. Given that many who are now - or will be - offering Windows Mobile based devices are somewhat unfamiliar with the typical Microsoft update process (especially mobile carriers), it was discussed at MDC that Microsoft are looking into ways to provide their own support and updates to the Windows Mobile component of these devices.
That means that issues such as the radio stack and carrier-specific customizations will not be addressed, but that the core OS - where most of the issues seem to occur - will ultimately return to Microsoft's responsibility. This, I'm sure, will be a welcome change to those familiar with long delays associated with - or, in some cases, the complete absence of - updates to Windows Mobile from their provider. Whether this will include major OS updates remains unclear, but at least if a "Windows Update" style functionality is available, this will address many concerns associated with adoption of the device.
Security
Security of the devices is another sore point, and something which I know causes many prospective corporate and government customers to reject Windows Mobile. Indeed, it's such a big issue that Microsoft recently published a white-paper on security in Windows Mobile, which primarily serves to point toward third-party applications.
It seems that Microsoft don't have much plans to change this for the moment, preferring to allow security to be an "optional feature". I'm not so sure as to the wisdom of this strategy - given the pressure on Microsoft nowadays to provide functional security in their operating systems and applications - but there is, nonetheless, some great applications out there to secure your device. It may hurt Microsoft in the long run, though, and I'd be completely unsurprised to see a total reversal of this position - and not too far off. I'd say that all it will take is a major security flaw (although some might argue - whether fairly or unfairly - that that applies to the platform as a whole in any case).
Conclusion
All in all, I think that Microsoft have a rosy future ahead with Windows Mobile. It's hard to see what the next five years will bring - although Microsoft seem confident of a massive adoption of the devices in that timeframe - but I think that the device will still be here (perhaps renamed yet again, but that's nothing unusual), with major innovations and applications that will leave the competition for dust.
Microsoft still have some lessons to learn - the attitude presented that "people will just have to get used to shorter battery life with these devices" is not a winning strategy, and the role of security in the devices is still vastly under-appreciated within the Microsoft culture. In addition, accessibility - both in terms of learning curve for mainstream users, and in the use of these devices by sight- or hearing-impaired people - has still yet to really bite them, and I believe it will. But frankly - I'm not too worried. I'll keep buying Windows Mobile based devices. So will many others. The challenge will be whether Microsoft can learn from their competitors - as well as setting new lessons for their competitors - and continue to improve and innovate.
I believe they will, and that in a few years time, the infantile Pocket PC Phone and Smartphone market will be almost unrecognisable from their present status. Will Microsoft beat out Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, and their other competition in this field? Probably not - but they'll have a strong foothold if they play the game well.